Effects of Sea Level Rise on Land Use and Ecosystem Services in the Liaohe Delta

Liehui Zhi,Hazrat Bilal,Junhong Bai,Xiaowen Li,Muxinzhou Gou,Gaojing Wang,Qingyue Zhang,Baoshan Cui,Usman Abdullahi

doi:10.3390/w14060841

Abstract

Sea level rise (SLR) has a significant impact on the ecosystem services in coastal wetlands. Taking the Liaohe Delta as an example, the SLAMM (Sea Level Rise Affecting Marsh Model) was used to simulate the medium-term (2010–2050) and the long-term (2010–2100) of the spatiotemporal changes of land use in the four scenarios (0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2 m) of sea level rise by 2100 and then based on the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Model) to assess and compare the impact of SLR on ecosystem services. The results are as follows. (1) The difference in SLR height greatly influences the transformation of the coastal wetland pattern. In 2100, the core construction land would be affected on a large scale for landward salt marsh migration for 1.5 and 2 m SLR scenarios. (2) Due to inundation, erosion, and vegetation succession, the mean total carbon storage for the four scenarios will decrease by about 0.58 × 106 t. The habitat quality is relatively stable, and its value is about 0.7. The nitrogen and phosphorus loads will be reduced by 26.27% and 28.22%, respectively. The region spatial distribution of freshwater marshes will shrink, while the transformation of salt marshes is inconsistent. The large-scale formation of regularly flooded marshes can also provide high levels of ecosystem services as salt marshes. In conclusion, the coastal wetlands show two evolution patterns under the four sea level rise scenarios, the two low ones show a slow change, and the two high ones are large. Quantitative assessment of the effects, scope and intensity of the impact of SLR on the function of ecosystem services in the coastal wetlands can provide reference and indicative significance for wetland development, construction, ecological conservation, and restoration in similar coastal areas under the impact of climate change.

Highlights

Introduction iationsSince the 1990s, the rapid development of the social economy and population growth in China’s coastal area have intensified the contradiction between supply and demand of land use
Based on the commonalities of the spatial representation of the two models, our study explored a complete method flow that combines them to characterize the impacts of climate change on coastal wetlands from a macrospatial perspective
The most extensive impacts of the high-sea level rise (SLR) scenario will be on coastal wetlands

Summary

Introduction

Since the 1990s, the rapid development of the social economy and population growth in China’s coastal area have intensified the contradiction between supply and demand of land use. Large-scale reclamation projects have encroached on large areas of coastal wetlands, resulting in damage to biodiversity and ecosystem services in coastal areas. The resource base of regional ecological security and sustainable development is seriously threatened [1–3]. Global climate change has attracted widespread attention since the 1970s, and sea level rise (SLR) is an essential feature of global climate change [4]. Global sea levels are expected to rise by about 0.5 to 1 m by 2100. According to the IPCC in 2021, that assumption is underestimated. In the worst-case scenario, it will rise by at least 2 m by 2100 [5]

Methods

Results

Conclusion