Effects of parameter and data uncertainty on long-term projections in a model of the global forest sector

Abstract

This study explored the consequences for long-term projections and impact analysis of the uncertainty in model parameters and initial conditions. Using the Global Forest Products Model, multiple replications of projections were carried out with parameters or initial condition data sampled randomly from their assumed distribution. The results showed that parameter uncertainty led to uncertainty of the projections increasing steadily with the time horizon, and more rapidly than the uncertainty stemming from initial conditions. Among the parameter uncertainties, those in the supply and demand elasticities tended to dominate the uncertainty in the other parameters describing forest growth, manufacturing activities, and trade inertia. In an application to impact analysis it was found that, due only to the uncertainty of the model parameters, and conditional on other assumptions, an assumed rise in global temperature of 2.8 °C over a century caused the forest stock in 2065 to be 2.4% to 4.0% higher in developed countries, and 2.5% to 3.9% lower in developing countries, with 68% probability, a conservative estimate of the true uncertainty given all the other factors involved in such a prediction.