Effects of market variables on net incorporation: evidence from Turkish 2018 debt and exchange rate crisis

Abstract

Purpose- The aim of this study is to determine the periodic effects of market variables on net incorporation during the Turkish 2018 Currency and Debt Crisis in Turkey. Because one of the main problems of the companies in Turkey are higher foreign exchange position. Increased exchange rate, interest rate and inflation shocks increases the fragility of the economy of Turkey. High foreign exchange openings together with the increasing fragility increase the risk of closing on companies. On the other hand, increasing interest shocks increase financing costs and increase the risk of closure, and make it difficult for new companies to open up. Therefore, to create a perspective for the study was selected the 2018 Turkey exchange rate and debt crisis as a case. Methodology- In this essay concept of firm had been used as company or corporate mean. And also concept of firming or net incorporation had been used difference between number of new opening companies and number of closing companies. Exchange rate, interest rate and inflation were selected as market variables. Closing firms and opening firms were selected as firm variables. The model was formed based on the Vector Auto Regressive Model. The values of the variables were observed in the monthly frequency and in the range of 2010 1st month and 2019 12th month. Findings- According to results, inflation and interest had a negative impact on the number of opening firms. And also, the increasing effect of exchange rates on the number of closing firms was generally greater than interest rate and inflation. Conclusion- Consequently, it has been argued that net firm number growth has been increasing in Turkey during periods when exchange rates are stable in a certain band range and inflation and interest rates start to decrease at the same time.