Effects of Irrigation Schedules on Maize Yield and Water Use Efficiency under Future Climate Scenarios in Heilongjiang Province Based on the AquaCrop Model

Abstract

Predicting the impact of future climate change on food security has important implications for sustainable food production. The 26 meteorological stations’ future climate data in the study area are assembled from four global climate models under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The future maize yield, actual crop evapotranspiration (ETa), and water use efficiency (WUE) were predicted by calibrated AquaCrop model under two deficit irrigation (the regulated deficit irrigation (RDI) at jointing stage(W1), filling stage(W2)), and full irrigation (W3) during the three periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2061–2080). The result showed that the maize yields under W1, W2, and W3 of RCP4.5 were 2.8%, 2.9%, and 2.5% lower than those in RCP8.5, respectively. In RCP8.5, the yield of W3 was 1.9% and 1.4% higher than W1 and W2, respectively. Under the RCP4.5, the ETa of W1, W2, and W3 was 481.32 mm, 484.94 mm, and 489.12 mm, respectively. Moreover, the ETa of W1 was significantly lower than W2 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (p > 0.05). In conclusion, regulated deficit irrigation at the maize jointing stage is recommended in the study area when considering WUE.