Effects of global warming on drought onset in China

Abstract

This study investigated the effects of warming on the drought onset in China using meteorological data and soil moisture data from 1980 to 2020. The variation characteristics of drought onset time and onset speed were analyzed systematically. The differences in drought onset time and onset speed during the period 1995–2020 and the period 1980–1994 were compared, and possible impact factors were analyzed. Results indicated that the spatial distribution of drought onset time decreased with an increase in regional wetness in China. In arid regions, onset time at 73 % of sites was over 35 days, and about 13 % was among 60–90 days. In semi-arid and sub-humid regions, the onset time was 25–40 days, and in humid regions, it was 20–30 days. After 1994, namely the significant temperature rise period, the onset time has remarkably shortened in parts of the southern Northeast, North China, the eastern Northwest, the western Southwest, the middle of Tibet, the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the coastal region of South China. The shortening was most obvious in sub-humid regions. The greater the warming magnitude, the wetter the region, the faster the drought onset speed. Drought onset speed (γ) was higher in the southern humid region than that in the northern region, and γ for southern Northeast China, northern North China, and eastern Northwest China was higher than that for the rest of North China. After 1994, drought onset speed was accelerated in most regions, especially in the semi-arid and sub-humid regions with precipitation in the range of 300–600 mm. Under the combined effect of increased evapotranspiration and reduced precipitation, the region has been the hot spot with increased drought speed after obvious warming in China.