Effects of Futures Varieties Opening Up on Currency Internationalization: Evidence from China

Abstract

The internationalization of the futures market has a certain impact on the internationalization of the RMB, and the opening up of futures varieties to the outside world is the most important link in the internationalization of the futures market, and it is necessary to quantitatively study the quantitative impact of the opening up of futures varieties on the internationalization of the RMB. Based on the monthly data from 2018 to 2022, this paper adopts the quantitative research method of cointegration-related theoretical model for the domestic international commodity futures (crude oil, iron ore, PTA) variables (futures price, turnover, position volume) on the variables of RMB internationalization (RMB international payment global market share, cross-border trade RMB business settlement amount, foreign exchange reserves, RMB real effective exchange rate index, RMB financial transactions), and studies the overall impact of international commodity futures on RMB internationalization. The study shows that the three indicators of the international commodity futures variable have different degrees of influence on the RMB internationalization index, of which the influence of price and open interest is significantly greater than the turnover. In the long run, the international futures price and open interest have a positive impact on the internationalization of the RMB, the turnover has a negative impact, and the impact of crude oil futures prices and open interest is stronger than that of iron ore and PTA. In the short term, the international commodity futures indicators have a certain impact on the internationalization of the RMB, crude oil and iron ore have a greater impact than the PTA, there are differences in the international development of different commodity markets, and the fitting effect of the model crude oil is better than other varieties. It is recommended to promote balanced development of the futures market internationalization through a variety of measures, continuously improve the international pricing power and influence of futures varieties, increase the open interest of futures, moderately reduce the turnover, and effectively promote the further development of RMB internationalization.