Abstract
Since the beginning of 2018, Sino-US trade frictions have been escalating to the fields of science and technology, finance, and geography. Especially in the financial field, the United States has forcibly identified China as a “currency manipulator.” In order to analyze the impact of Sino-US trade on the RMB exchange rate, based on the Sino-US import and export trade data under the quarterly HS classification from 2003 to 2019 and the RMB real effective exchange rate, this article carries out the traditional time series test, seasonal unit root test, and cointegration test and further constructs the seasonal error correction model to explore the long-term and short-term dynamic impact of Sino-US import and export trade structure on RMB real effective exchange rate. The results shows that the upgrading and optimization of the overall trade structure between China and the United States will increase the appreciation pressure of RMB real effective exchange rate. There are seasonal and long-term trends between RMB real effective exchange rate and different types of import and export trade structures between China and the United States. Therefore, this article not only strongly refutes the “theory of RMB appreciation” and puts forward policy suggestions to effectively deal with the negative impact of Sino-US trade friction but also provides a research framework for global trade, especially the decoupling of trade structure and exchange rate between developing and developed countries.
Highlights
Western media have long attributed the huge Sino-US trade surplus to exchange rate distortions caused by the artificial undervaluation of the RMB
Stationarity Test. is article takes the natural logarithm of the variables related to the Sino-US trade structure and the real effective exchange rate of the RMB and performs the ADF unit root test. e results are shown in Table 1. e first-order difference between the overall SinoUS trade structure, China’s import structure to the United States, China’s export structure to the United States, and the real effective exchange rate of the RMB is significant at the 5% level, indicating that they are a stationary series after the first-order difference
First of all, based on the “Balassa-Samuelson” effect, this article uses the cointegration method to test the impact of the overall trade structure of China and the United States on the real effective exchange rate of the RMB and finds that the overall trade structure between China and the United States has a positive correlation with the real effective exchange rate of the RMB. at is to say, the upgrading and optimization of the overall trade structure between China and the United States will increase the pressure on the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of the RMB
Summary
Western media have long attributed the huge Sino-US trade surplus to exchange rate distortions caused by the artificial undervaluation of the RMB. Only paying attention to the impact of the RMB exchange rate on the scale of trade balances will inevitably be biased. Ere are few studies on the relationship between trade structure and exchange rate. Erefore, from the perspective of the Sino-US trade structure, this article clarifies the relationship between the Sino-US trade structure and the RMB exchange rate. Few scholars have studied the RMB exchange rate from the perspective of Sino-US trade structure. It has profound theories for distinguishing the Sino-US exchange rate disputes and adjusting the Sino-US trade structure imbalance, and forming a mutually beneficial and win-win trade model is of far-reaching theoretical and practical significance
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