Abstract

SummaryClimate change may influence the phenology of organisms unequally across trophic levels and thus lead to phenological mismatches between predators and prey. In cases where prey availability peaks before reproducing predators reach maximal prey demand, any negative fitness consequences would selectively favor resynchronization by earlier starts of the reproductive activities of the predators. At a study site in northeast Greenland, over a period of 17 years, the median emergence of the invertebrate prey of Sanderling Calidris alba advanced with 1.27 days per year. Yet, over the same period Sanderling did not advance hatching date. Thus, Sanderlings increasingly hatched after their prey was maximally abundant. Surprisingly, the phenological mismatches did not affect chick growth, but the interaction of the annual width and height of the peak in food abundance did. Chicks grew especially better in years when the food peak was broad. Sanderling clutches were most likely to be depredated early in the season, which should delay reproduction. We propose that high early clutch predation may favor a later reproductive timing. Additionally, our data suggest that in most years food was still abundant after the median date of emergence, which may explain why Sanderlings did not advance breeding along with the advances in arthropod phenology.

Highlights

  • As a consequence of higher spring temperatures, many organisms have advanced their phenology (Post et al 2001; Root et al 2003)

  • A hurdle in making adjustments includes the problem that, whereas photoperiodic cues used to time migration (Gwinner 1996a,b) are unaffected by climate change (Coppack et al 2003), the timing of peak abundance of arthropod prey is strongly so (e.g., Høye and Forchhammer 2008; see Winkler et al 2014 for discussion)

  • Using a dataset collected during a 17-year period in northeast Greenland, a period with rapid warming (e.g., Høye et al 2013), we investigated the inter- and intraannual variation in, and the interlinkages between the reproductive timing of a long-distance migratory high Arctic bird, the Sanderling (Calidris alba Pallas 1764, Fig. 1), clutch predation, chick growth, and arthropod prey abundance

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Summary

Introduction

As a consequence of higher spring temperatures, many organisms have advanced their phenology (Post et al 2001; Root et al 2003). For example, have started to migrate and breed earlier in association with increasing spring temperatures (Both et al 2005; Gordo 2007; Lehikoinen and Sparks 2010) and advancements in snow melt (e.g., Liebezeit et al 2014). Long-distance migratory birds time the onset of migration with limited knowledge of the ecological conditions in the distant breeding area later in the year (Piersma et al 1990; Visser et al 2006; Winkler et al 2014). Environmental conditions during migration may constrain the possibility to arrive earlier on the breeding grounds (e.g., Piersma and Baker 2000; Both 2010)

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