Abstract
Numerical simulations of a 24-h period during GATE are performed to evaluate the impact of enhanced initial moisture fields on short range forecasts of tropical rainfall. The domain covers West Africa and most of the eastern half of the Atlantic Ocean. A version of the Pennsylvania State University Mesoscale Model is used, and results are verified against satellite rainfall estimates. The initial moisture fields are enhanced subjectively using visible satellite imagery, available rawinsonde soundings and monthly mean soundings. The rainfall forecasts with initial moistures enhanced throughout the analysis region clearly outperform forecasts which use either the unaltered initial moisture analysis or an analysis performed with selectively enhanced moisture soundings. The former produce better zonal and meridional distributions of rain, narrower and more intense intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) regions and stronger local maxima in agreement with verification. The success of the relatively simple moisture enhancement used in this study suggests that satellite-enhanced moisture analyses will have a major impact on short-range numerical forecasts of tropical rainfall.
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