Abstract
This study aims to determine optimal sowing date for winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and invoke DSSAT Nwheat model to analyze impact of modified sowing date to phenological development and grain yield. Wheat was grown for three seasons in two locations across Lithuania and sowing was carried out one time per week from 1 September to 29 September. Average three-year temperature of vegetation period gets lower every week by 0.16 °C, and available GDD by 94.5 °C when sowing time is delayed. Modeling results showed that tillering rate is affected by sowing time winter wheat grew 232 (tillers m-2) less with each week of delayed sowing. Grain filling stage was shortened by 1.25 days with each delayed sowing week. Depending on sowing time yield varied from 8.58 t ha-1 to 6 t ha-1 while simulated harvest was 8% lower. We conclude that best winter wheat sowing time for current climatic conditions in Lithuania is mid-September and DSSAT model proves as a useful tool in anticipating sowing time while facing problems caused by a climate change.
Highlights
Climate change causes increasing concern for our society by putting crops and food safety at risk
This study aims to evaluate winter wheat phenological development and yield gain at different sowing dates and utilizing Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) (4.7) Nwheat model to determine the best sowing time to achieve optimal winter wheat phenological parameters and yield based on observed data of field experiments in Lithuania
The DSSAT Nwheat model was successfully calibrated for winter wheat growth in Lithuania based on observed phenological phases and yield data from three-year experiment
Summary
Climate change causes increasing concern for our society by putting crops and food safety at risk. Worldwide wheat production exceeds other cereals production because wheat is one of the key crops in making main food products like flour, bread, and pasta. It is used as the main ingredient for animal feed while replacing corn. Every year millions of tons of cereals are lost due to climate change induced excessive rainfall, too high temperatures in summer or too low temperatures during winter for winter cultivars. In the period from 1971 to 2000, 78% of all crop phenology records analyzed by Menzel et al (2006) in 21 European countries have shown significant changes in phenological occurrences
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