Effects of climatological parameters on the outbreak spread of COVID-19 in highly affected regions of Spain.

Khurram Shahzad,Zeeshan Fareed,Farrukh Shahzad,Najaf Iqbal,Umer Shahzad

doi:10.1007/s11356-020-10551-3

Abstract

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is infecting the human population, killing people, and destroying livelihoods. This research sought to explore the associations of daily average temperature (AT) and air quality (PM2.5) with the daily new cases of COVID-19 in the top four regions of Spain (Castilla y Leon, Castilla-La Mancha, Catalonia, and Madrid). To this end, the authors employ Pearson correlation, Spearman correlation, and robust panel regressions to quantify the overall co-movement between temperature, air quality, and daily cases of COVID-19 from 29 February to 17 July 2020. Overall empirical results show that temperature may not be a determinant to induce COVID-19 spread in Spain, while the rising temperature may reduce the virus transmission. However, the correlation and regression findings illustrate that air quality may speed up the transmission rate of COVID-19. Our findings are contrary to the earlier studies, which show a significant impact of temperature in raising the COVID-19 spread. The conclusions of this work can serve as an input to mitigate the rapid spread of COVID-19 in Spain and reform policies accordingly.

Highlights

A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic was first reported in Wuhan (China) in December 2019, which spread quickly around the globe (Anderson et al 2020; Li et al 2020; Gorbalenya 2020; Wu et al 2020a)
Additional studies at the end of this outbreak will be more helpful in understanding the role played by the climate factors in COVID-19 spread or control. This is probably the first article to investigate the correlations between average temperature, air quality, and COVID-19 in Spain population
The present study utilizes correlation and panel regression methods to investigate the association between temperature, air quality, and COVID-19 across four regions of Spain with high infections

Summary

Introduction

A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic was first reported in Wuhan (China) in December 2019, which spread quickly around the globe (Anderson et al 2020; Li et al 2020; Gorbalenya 2020; Wu et al 2020a). The transmission of viruses can be affected by many factors, including climate conditions (such as temperature, air quality, and humidity), populated areas, and healthcare quality (Wang et al 2020). A respiratory disease influenza outbreak spreads quickly in winter conditions (Lowen et al 2007; Tamerius et al 2013). Few of the recent works reported the evidence that transmission of influenza decreased in high temperature and humidity (Shaman and Kohn 2009; Lipsitch and Viboud 2009; Steel et al 2011; Park et al 2019). Two conditions help to spread the infectious disease; first, dry air and respiratory droplets contain the longer airborne duration of the influenza virus and more stable in cold temperature (Lowen and Steel 2014; Tellier 2009). Due to the weak immune system of hosts in cold and dry weather, the virus has been susceptible to effect quickly to the hosts (Eccles 2002; Kudo et al 2020)

Objectives

Methods

Findings

Discussion

Conclusion