Abstract
BackgroundThe influence of meteorological factors on the transmission and spread of COVID-19 is of interest and has not been investigated.ObjectiveThis study aimed to investigate the associations between meteorological factors and the daily number of new cases of COVID-19 in 9 Asian cities.MethodsPearson correlation and generalized additive modeling (GAM) were performed to assess the relationships between daily new COVID-19 cases and meteorological factors (daily average temperature and relative humidity) with the most updated data currently available.ResultsThe Pearson correlation showed that daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 were more correlated with the average temperature than with relative humidity. Daily new confirmed cases were negatively correlated with the average temperature in Beijing (r=–0.565, P<.001), Shanghai (r=–0.47, P<.001), and Guangzhou (r=–0.53, P<.001). In Japan, however, a positive correlation was observed (r=0.416, P<.001). In most of the cities (Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Seoul, Tokyo, and Kuala Lumpur), GAM analysis showed the number of daily new confirmed cases to be positively associated with both average temperature and relative humidity, especially using lagged 3D modeling where the positive influence of temperature on daily new confirmed cases was discerned in 5 cities (exceptions: Beijing, Wuhan, Korea, and Malaysia). Moreover, the sensitivity analysis showed, by incorporating the city grade and public health measures into the model, that higher temperatures can increase daily new case numbers (beta=0.073, Z=11.594, P<.001) in the lagged 3-day model.ConclusionsThe findings suggest that increased temperature yield increases in daily new cases of COVID-19. Hence, large-scale public health measures and expanded regional research are still required until a vaccine becomes widely available and herd immunity is established.
Highlights
In December 2019, several cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology were reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China [1]
The findings suggest that increased temperature yield increases in daily new cases of COVID-19
A novel strain of coronavirus was identified from the nasopharyngeal swab specimens of infected patients, which was later named SARS-CoV-2, which results in the disease COVID-19
Summary
In December 2019, several cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology were reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China [1]. A novel strain of coronavirus was identified from the nasopharyngeal swab specimens of infected patients, which was later named SARS-CoV-2, which results in the disease COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2, of the Coronaviridae family, is an enveloped, single-stranded, positive-sense RNA (ribonucleic acid) virus, which is closely related to the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome)-like coronaviruses, and based on the phylogenetic analysis, these coronaviruses have a common ancestor that resembles the bat coronavirus HKU9-1 [3,4]. Evidence has shown that SARS-CoV-2 can transmit from person to person via respiratory droplets, fecal-oral route, direct contact, and aerosols [5,6,7]. The long incubation period (1-14 days) increases the difficulty of controlling the COVID-19 outbreak. By early July 2020, 215 countries and regions had reported high infection rates, with over 7,000,000 confirmed cases, 400,000 deaths, and a fatality rate of over 5.84% worldwide [10]. The influence of meteorological factors on the transmission and spread of COVID-19 is of interest and has not been investigated
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