Effects of Climate Variability and Human Activities on Vegetation Dynamics across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 1982 to 2020

Abstract

In recent years, vegetation on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) has undergone significant greening. However, the causal factors underpinning this phenomenon, whether attributable to temperature fluctuations, precipitation patterns, or anthropogenic interventions, remain a subject of extensive scholarly debate. This study conducted a comprehensive analysis of the evolving vegetation across the QTP. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Data Record Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Normalized Vegetation Difference Index (NOAA CDR AVHRR NDVI) dataset was employed to elucidate the intricate relationship between climatic variables and human activities driving vegetative transformations. The findings were as follows: The NDVI on the QTP has exhibited a significant greening trend at a rate of 0.0013/a (per year). A minor decline, accounting for only 17.6% of grasslands, was observed, which was primarily concentrated in the northwestern and northern regions. Through residual analysis, climate change was found to be the predominant driver, explaining 70.6% of the vegetation variability across the plateau. Concurrently, noticeable trends in temperature and precipitation increases were observed on the QTP, with the southern region demonstrating improved sensitivity to precipitation alterations. In summary, these results substantiate that a confluence of climatic warming, enhanced moisture availability, and a reduction in livestock population collectively creates an environment conducive to enhanced vegetation vigor on the QTP. This study highlights the significance of acknowledging the dual influence of climate and human agency in shaping vegetative dynamics, which is a critical consideration for informed land management strategies and sustainable development initiatives on this ecologically pivotal plateau.