Effects of cascading reservoirs on streamflow and sediment load with machine learning reconstructed time series in the upper Yellow River basin

Abstract

Large reservoirs are widely built along rivers for flood control, hydropower generation, water supply for industry and agricultural production, and recreation. Many large reservoirs/dams built to provide multiple functions for local people are strongly influenced by the downstream flow and sediment discharge in the upstream of the Yellow River, China. In this study, we assessed the changes in the river flow and sediment discharge in responses to the construction of cascade reservoirs/dams by using continuously hydrological time series observed at six stations during 1956–2018. The temporal change in the streamflow was insignificant, but the sediment load decreased dramatically due to the trapping effects of the cascade reservoirs. The change points were detected in 1969 and 1986, which were consistent with the timing of the construction of gigantic reservoirs. We then applied the abrupt changing points to divide the whole time series into a reference period (1956–1968) and two changing periods (1969–1986 and 1987–2018). The linear regression and three machine learning models were employed to reconstruct the natural streamflow and sediment load at the downstream station, before quantifying their responses to cascade reservoirs. The annual mean streamflow and sediment load decreased by 21% and 84%, respectively, after constructing the Longyangxia and Liujiaxia reservoirs. Cascade reservoirs contributed 85.39% and 94.91% to the decreases in the streamflow and sediment discharge, respectively. Hydrological regimes have been greatly altered by the 13 cascade reservoirs, with seasonal redistribution of the streamflow and flood peak reduction because their high trapping efficiencies exceed 95%. These findings indicate that large and medium sized reservoirs have drastically altered the streamflow and sediment load, thereby intensely influencing the fluvial processes in the upstream of the Yellow River.