Effects of Anthropogenic and Climate-Induced Habitat Changes on Adult Female Mule Deer Survival

Abstract

Increased wildfire size and frequency, invasion of non-native annual grasses, extensive fire suppression, climate change, and widespread juniper expansion have led to dramatic changes in sagebrush ecosystems, which provide habitat for a suite of wildlife species, including mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus). These landscape-level disturbances can cause habitat loss and degradation, which influence the quantity and quality of available forage and can negatively influence adult female mule deer survival. We used Program MARK to estimate survival rates using a known-fate model. Our dataset included 111 radio-collared female mule deer to estimate monthly survival rates and to investigate factors that may affect these rates, including movement behavior (migratory or resident) and habitat characteristics (wildfire and juniper canopy cover) in mule deer habitats supporting sagebrush potential vegetation types (PVTs). The dataset included 116 421 Global Positioning System (GPS) location points from 2015 to 2017 in the John Day Basin, Oregon, United States. Survival averaged 0.78 (95% confidence interval = 0.61–0.82) across the study period but was 0.69 (95% confidence interval = 0.59–0.77) in 2015. Our results indicated survival was positively influenced by the presence of small amounts of recent fire (< 15% of total winter range burned; 1−20 yr postfire) within an individual's winter range. Annual survival (0.78) was low compared with survival rates for adult female mule deer in other parts of their geographic range. These findings demonstrate how postfire vegetation response can have a positive effect on mule deer survival, regardless of their migration strategy. Our findings also indicate how climate change poses a growing threat to mule deer populations as prolonged periods of drought increase the spread of fatal diseases.