Abstract
To obtain critical rainfall (CR) estimates similar to the rainfall value that causes minor basin outlet flooding, and to reduce the flash flood warning missed/false alarm rate, the effect of unit hydrographs (UHs) and rainfall hyetographs on computed threshold rainfall (TR) values was investigated. The Tanjia River basin which is a headwater subbasin of the Greater Huai River basin in China was selected as study basin. Xin’anjiang Model, with subbasins as computation units, was constructed, and time-variant distributed unit hydrographs (TVUHs) were used to route the channel network concentration. Calibrated Xin’anjiang Model was employed to derive the TVUHs and to obtain the maximum critical rainfall duration (Dmax) of the study basin. Initial soil moisture condition was represented by the antecedent precipitation index (Pa). Rainfall hyetographs characterized by linearly increasing, linearly decreasing, and uniform hyetographs were used. Different combinations of the three hyetographs and UHs including TVUHs and time-invariant unit hydrographs (TIVUHs) were utilized as input to the calibrated Xin’anjiang Model to compute the relationships between TR and Pa (TR-Pa curves) by using trial and error methodology. The computed TR-Pa curves reveal that, for given Pa and UH, the TR corresponding to linearly increasing hyetograph is the minimum one. So, the linearly increasing hyetograph is the optimum hyetograph type for estimating CR. In the linearly increasing hyetograph context, a comparison was performed between TR-Pa curves computed from different UHs. The results show that TR values for different TIVUHs are significantly different and the TR-Pa curve gradient of TVUHs is lower than that of TIVUHs. It is observed that CR corresponds to the combination of linearly increasing hyetograph and TVUHs. The relationship between CR and Pa (CR-Pa curves) and that between CR and duration (D) (CR-D curves) were computed. Warnings for 12 historical flood events were performed. Warning results show that the success rate was 91.67% and that the critical success index (CSI) was 0.91. It is concluded that the combination of linearly increasing hyetograph and TVUHs can provide the CR estimate similar to the minimum rainfall value necessary to cause flash flooding.
Highlights
Flooding is the worst weather-related hazard, causing loss of life and excessive property damage [1,2,3]
I 1 where Q(t) is the subbasin outlet discharge rate, m3/s; unit hydrographs (UHs) is the ordinate of dimensionless unit hydrograph; and N is the number of dimensionless UH time intervals. e method presented by Kong et al [18] is used to derive the time-variant distributed unit hydrographs (TVUHs) of each subbasin
UH5 mm, UH10 mm, UH20 mm, and UH30 mm are used to analyze the relationship between threshold rainfall (TR) and precipitation index (Pa). e TR-Pa curves of four UHs are illustrated in Figure 3. e computed TR value is small when a UH with a large peak is used at each Δt, and the computed TR value is large when UH with a small peak is used at each Δt
Summary
Flooding is the worst weather-related hazard, causing loss of life and excessive property damage [1,2,3]. E hydrological responses of different cumulative rainfall values, for fixed duration, initial soil moisture condition, and hyetograph type, are simulated by calibrated watershed hydrological model. Results show that the TR values computed using various methods are obviously different and that, for the fixed watershed hydrological model, the type of rainfall data source used for model calibration significantly affects the TR estimates. According to hydrological rainfall-runoff formation theory, for a fixed computing method, the TR estimate is generally a function of initial soil moisture condition, rainfall duration, and hyetograph. For the fixed study watershed and data sources (observed data), in order to obtain the CR estimate approximate as far as possible with the minimum rainfall value necessary to cause flooding, the appropriate model (Xin’anjiang Model and UHs) and opportunely calibrated parameters were employed.
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