Effectiveness of SIMBLIGHT1 and SIMPHYT1 models for predicting Phytophthora infestans in north-eastern United States

Abstract

Accurate prediction of Phytophthora infestans outbreak in a cropping season is crucial for the effective management of late blight on potato. The SIMBLIGHT1, SIMPHYT1 and modified SIMPHYT1 models were assessed for predicting late blight outbreaks relative to NOBLIGHT model by using climatic and crop data from field experiments at Presque Isle, ME, from 2004 to 2009. The dynamics of late blight infection pressures were computed by SIMPHYT3 model to assess the conduciveness of environmental conditions for late blight infection and potential for disease development. Infection pressure indicated conditions were moderately conducive for late blight development but varied across years. The SIMPHYT1 model recommended fungicide applications to commence on 11 July, 21 July, 8 July, 10 July, 7 July and 7 July for 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively. The modified SIMPHYT1 model (US-version) recommended similar fungicide application dates for the same years with the exception of 2007. Model simulations of disease outbreak differed from actual recorded observations in untreated plots by 24–65 days. Simulation of SIMBLIGHT1 based on high and low soil moisture conditions in the field resulted in vast differences in dates of first fungicide application. Validation of the models (differences in the number of days between recommendation of fungicide treatment and late blight outbreak) indicated a better goodness of fit for the models (intervals of 6–20 days from the start of fungicide application to first disease outbreak). The NOBLIGHT model was accurate in forecasting the timing of first fungicide applications for late blight control. Significant improvements in late blight predictions could result if these models were modified to account for external sources of inoculum, by combining weather-based forecasts with spore traps, disease detection methods or complimentary systems.