Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in 190 countries from 23 January to 13 April 2020

Abstract

BackgroundTo evaluate and compare the effectiveness of four types of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt) of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). MethodsThis study included 1,908,197 confirmed COVID-19 cases from 190 countries between 23 January and 13 April 2020. The implemented NPIs were categorised into four types: mandatory face mask in public, isolation or quarantine, social distancing and traffic restriction (referred to as mandatory mask, quarantine, distancing and traffic hereafter, respectively). ResultsThe implementations of mandatory mask, quarantine, distancing and traffic were associated with changes (95% confidence interval, CI) of −15.14% (from −21.79% to −7.93%), −11.40% (from −13.66% to −9.07%), −42.94% (from −44.24% to −41.60%) and −9.26% (from −11.46% to −7.01%) in the Rt of COVID-19 when compared with those without the implementation of the corresponding measures. Distancing and the simultaneous implementation of two or more types of NPIs seemed to be associated with a greater decrease in the Rt of COVID-19. ConclusionOur study indicates that NPIs can significantly contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Distancing and the simultaneous implementation of two or more NPIs should be the strategic priorities for containing COVID-19.