Effect of Tourism and Air Travel Restrictions on the Initial International Spread of the Covid-19 Pandemic

Abstract

The study aims to model the initial international spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and analyze the risk of early initial spread using data from 105 countries. A generalized linear model (GLM) is developed to analyze the relationship between the initial international spread and its factors. Findings showed that the countries with high tourism activity are affected early by COVID-19, and countries with a better quality healthcare system can adequately detect the spread. Countries that promptly restricted air passengers have experienced a delay in the initial international spread. A regression analysis of fatalities during the initial stage suggested that the countries with an early initial spread of COVID-19 coupled with a high proportion of the elderly population possess a relatively high risk of fatalities. The study provides insights into the factors influencing the initial international spread of contagious diseases and the effect of air travel restrictions on the spread. This study can aid in contingency planning during the initial spread of pandemics, especially for countries with high tourism activity.