Abstract
Increased heat stress affects well-being, comfort, and economic activities across the world. It also causes a significant decrease in work performance, as well as heat-related mortality. This study aims to investigate the impacts of the projected climate change scenario under RCP8.5 on heat stress and associated work performance in Thailand during the years 2020–2029. The model evaluation shows exceptional performance in the present-day simulation (1990–1999) of temperature and relative humidity, with R2 values ranging from 0.79 to 0.87; however, the modeled temperature and relative humidity are all underestimated when compared to observation data by −0.9 °C and −27%, respectively. The model results show that the temperature change will tend to increase by 0.62 °C per decade in the future. This could lead to an increase in the heat index by 2.57 °C if the temperature increases by up to 1.5 °C in Thailand. The effect of climate change is predicted to increase heat stress by 0.1 °C to 4 °C and to reduce work performance in the range of 4% to >10% across Thailand during the years 2020 and 2029.
Highlights
Global climate change, manifested as a rise in the average global temperature, has emerged as a megatrend that will result in significant ecological and social-economic impacts in the future
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Assessment Report on Climate Change, released in 2021, climate change poses a substantial threat to societies around the world, and the changes observed in the climate are widespread, rapid, and intensifying, with some of the changes, such as the continued sea level rise, being irreversible over hundreds to thousands of years
The HI calculation was performed using the output from the inner domain, including 2 m temperature and relative humidity, from the previous simulation by the NRCM under climate change scenario RCP8.5 [25]
Summary
Global climate change, manifested as a rise in the average global temperature, has emerged as a megatrend that will result in significant ecological and social-economic impacts in the future. Rising levels of heat stress across India appear to be related to the severe temperature changes, increases in the duration and intensity of warm days, and future modulation in large-scale circulation. Work performance in India is expected to fall by 30 to 40% by the end of the 21st century due to increases in heat stress levels, posing significant problems for the country’s policymakers in designing safety measures and protecting people continuously working in extremely hot weather conditions. As Thailand is a country in SEA that is more vulnerable to heat extremes due to expected temperature increases, understanding the effects of future climate change on heat stress and work performance enables policymakers to take steps to protect workers from the harmful exposure to heat stress and sustain work performance [19,25]. FiFgiugruere1.1.((aa)) Population ininThTahialailnadndin iyneayre2a0r1920(a1v9ai(laavbaleilaobnlleineo:nhlitntpe:s:/h/ttwpsw:/w/w.cwitywp.coiptyuplaotpiounl.ad-e/ tioenn./dteh/eanil/atnhda/ilapnrodv/p/raodvm/aidnm/ (inac/c(eascsceedssoend 2o7nJ2a7nuJaanruya2r0y220))2,2(b))), (NbR) CNMRCdMomdaoimn.ain
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