Abstract

Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) are an important pelagic fish species within the China Sea. Annual recruitment of this species is determined primarily by survival in the early life history stages. Minor changes in the physical marine environment can have a significant effect on the growth and survival of eggs and larvae, thereby affecting recruitment of population. To model this interaction, we constructed a bio-physical dynamic model of the early life history of chub mackerel in the East China Sea (ECS). The physical model was based on the unstructured grid Finite Volume Coast and Ocean Model (FVCOM) and simulated the 3-D physical fields. The biological model was based on individual-based models (IBMs) in which the early life stages of chub mackerel were divided into five stages based on age or length. The model was parameterized using functions describing spawning, growth, and survival for chub mackerel in the ECS. Using this coupled physical and biological model, driven by the March–July climatological forcing, we tracked super individuals from spawning grounds to the nursery grounds to evaluate the influence of the physical environment at each of the spawning locations (western, normal, eastern) on the transport and survival of chub mackerel. The model suggests that spawning location has a significant effect on larval transport, although the larvae were generally advected northeastward to enter the Japan/East Sea through the Tsushima/East Strait or southeastward with the Kuroshio Current which then flows along the eastern Japanese coast. Spawning to the west was highly influenced by the Taiwan Warm Current (TWC) during early transport when the larvae were advected northward and then northeastward. The speed of drifting during this period was relatively slow. The model predicted that a large number of eggs and larvae would enter and transit through China’s coastal waters (Changjiang River Estuary, Hangzhou Bay, and the Zhoushan Islands). Under this scenario, the majority of larvae were transported to the northern nursery grounds, 79% to the nursery at Jeju Island and 10% to the nursery at Tsushima Strait. In contrast, only 11% were transported to the southern nursery grounds in the Pacific Ocean and Kyushu. Larvae spawned at the eastern spawning ground were primarily influenced by the Kuroshio Current which transported the larvae southeastward. Kuroshio acts as a barrier, restricting larvae from being advected to the interior of the western Pacific Ocean. Under such circumstances, almost no eggs and larvae were retained in the coastal waters of China. Instead, the larvae were rapidly transported northeastward from the Chinese shelf towards the coast of Japan. The model predicted that a large number of larvae would be transported to the southern nursery grounds in the Pacific Ocean and Kyushu, before entering the Pacific Ocean and Japan Sea. In total, 36% of larvae were transported to the Pacific Ocean nursery, 45% to the northern nursery grounds of Jeju Island and Tsushima Strait, and 27% to the Jeju Island nursery. The three simulations assumed the same number of eggs were spawned (2.17×1012) and the survival of larvae at the western, normal, and eastern spawning grounds was 0.0306%, 0.0353%, and 0.0234%, respectively. The average length was 123.7, 126.0, and 123.5mm, respectively. Our results suggest that larvae spawned in different regions encountered different physical environments and were subject to different transport processes. These differences explain the changes in survival and growth observed between larvae from the different areas. Survival and growth was highest for chub mackerel that were spawned at the normal spawning location and subject to suitable water depths and temperatures during transport.

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