Effect of Macroeconomic Determinants on Indian Stock Market

Abstract

Stock market is one of the important forms of investment. The prices of stock markets are affected by much macro-economic factors. The study investigates the relationships between the Indian stock market index (NSE Nifty) and four macroeconomic variables, namely, GDP, Inflation, Exchange Rate and Bank Rate. The data is collected on a quarterly basis for the time period March 2000 to December 2017. The study employs the Johansen’s co-integration approach to the long-run equilibrium relationship between stock market index and macroeconomic variables. For causality analysis, the study carried out Granger and Geweke causality tests. From this paper it is observed that the Granger causality test results do not demonstrate the presence of any bidirectional causality. The results show the unidirectional causal associations running from GDP to Inflation, Bank Rate to GDP, Exchange Rate to GDP, NIFTY Index to GDP, Exchange Rate to Inflation, NIFTY Index to Inflation, and Bank Rate to NIFTY Index. Apart from that, the results also show no causal association between Inflation and Bank Rate, Bank Rate and Exchange Rate, and Exchange Rate and NIFTY Index. However, the bidirectional causal associations appear. When we look into the results of Geweke causality analysis shows that bidirectional causal associations exist between Inflation and Bank Rate, and Exchange Rate and Nifty Index.