Effect of Landslide Factor Combinations on the Prediction Accuracy of Landslide Susceptibility Maps in the Blue Nile Gorge of Central Ethiopia

Abstract

Database construction for landslide factors (slope, aspect, profile curvature, plan curvature, lithology, land use, distance from lineament & distance from river) and landslide inventory map is an important step in landslide susceptibility modelling. Using the frequency ratio model, the weights for each factor classes were calculated and assigned in GIS so as to add these factors and produce landslide susceptibility index maps based on mathematical combination theory. However, before combining them, their independence among each other should be ascertained. For this, the correlation matrix of logistic regression was applied and this showed that most of the correlations between factors were either absent or very insignificant suggesting that all landslide factors are independent. From a set of eight landslide factors, a total of 247 landslide susceptibility map combinations can be generated. However, for simplification, only 28 landslide susceptibility maps were chosen. Then the best landslide susceptibility map was selected based on high prediction accuracy. But, when there is similarity in the prediction accuracies of different combinations, the landslide susceptibility index difference values can be used as another selection criterion. Hence, the susceptibility map from a combination of all landslide factors except distance from river was found to be the best one. Among the 28 representative combinations, landslide susceptibility maps with the same prediction accuracy of 87.7% have been found in spite of their dissimilarity in their difference values. The combination, with a limited number of landslide factors and the highest prediction accuracy of 87.7%, was found from a combination of slope, lithology, land use and distance from lineament. In order to validate the prediction model, landslides were overlaid over the landslide susceptibility map and the number of landslides that fall into each susceptibility class was calculated. From this analysis 0.39%, 1.84%, 9.1%, 32.04% and 56.63% of the landslides fall in the very low, low, medium, high and very high landslide susceptibility classes respectively. Since 88.67% of the landslides fall in the high and very high susceptibility classes, the landslide susceptibility map can be considered reliable to predict future landslides.