Effect of Climate Change Projections on Forest Fire Behavior and Values-at-Risk in Southwestern Greece

Kostas Kalabokidis,Effie Kostopoulou,Christos Zerefos,Palaiologos Palaiologou,Evangelos Gerasopoulos,Christos Giannakopoulos

doi:10.3390/f6062214

Kostas Kalabokidis, Effie Kostopoulou + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/f6062214

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Journal: Forests	Publication Date: Jun 19, 2015
Citations: 49	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: University of the Aegean, National Observatory of Athens

Abstract

Climate change has the potential to influence many aspects of wildfire behavior and risk. During the last decade, Greece has experienced large-scale wildfire phenomena with unprecedented fire behavior and impacts. In this study, thousands of wildfire events were simulated with the Minimum Travel Time (MTT) fire growth algorithm (called Randig) and resulted in spatial data that describe conditional burn probabilities, potential fire spread and intensity in Messinia, Greece. Present (1961–1990) and future (2071–2100) climate projections were derived from simulations of the KNMI regional climate model RACMO2, under the SRES A1B emission scenario. Data regarding fuel moisture content, wind speed and direction were modified for the different projection time periods to be used as inputs in Randig. Results were used to assess the vulnerability changes for certain values-at-risk of the natural and human-made environment. Differences in wildfire risk were calculated and results revealed that larger wildfires that resist initial control are to be expected in the future, with higher conditional burn probabilities and intensities for extensive parts of the study area. The degree of change in the modeled Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index for the two time periods also revealed an increasing trend in frequencies of higher values for the future.

Highlights

Studies claim that global warming will eventually alter temperature and precipitation patterns around the world [1]
It should be acknowledged that the Conditional burn probability (CBP) and Conditional flame length (CFL) are conditional given the presence of a fire resistant to initial control
Climate change research and forest fire science are in a continuous state of evolution and as our understanding of how different aspects of climate interaction is expanding, so does our ability to forecast future wildfire behavior

Summary

Introduction

Studies claim that global warming will eventually alter temperature and precipitation patterns around the world [1]. Changes in climate have the potential to significantly affect wildfire frequency, size and intensity; while higher fire risks, longer fire seasons and more severe fire effects are expected [3,4,5,6,7] These possible future changes on wildfire patterns will subsequently increase the risk of wildfire-related hazards and vulnerabilities such as microclimate alteration, floods, destruction of infrastructure, economic losses and human casualties. Future model predictions have shown that the number of days with maximum temperatures exceeding 35 °C and their total annual number are expected to increase there [14,22] Such changes may lead to an increase in the magnitude of forest fire risk in Greece and the eastern Mediterranean region

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Conclusion