Abstract
With the occurrence of intensive climate change, there is a risk of irreversible damage to global biodiversity, resulting in reduction of geographical distribution and species extinction. The objective of this study was to evaluate the current distribution and the future projection of the areas of occurrence of Curitiba prismatica. Current occurrence data accessed in the SpeciesLink database and scientific studies were collected, which were correlated with the bioclimatic data available in WorldClim, for the current and future periods (2070), in the optimistic (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic scenarios (RCP 8.5) of the HadGEM2-ES model. In the current scenario, a species presents suitability restricted to mixed ombrophilous forest (MOF), with limited distribution to the center-south of the state of Paraná and the north of the state of Santa Catarina. For the future, there were reductions in the areas of climatic susceptibility for the species, both in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. In the RCP 4.5 scenario, the predictive reduction was found in the midwest region of Paraná, unlike the RCP 8.5 scenario, which showed a low reduction in this region. Therefore, in the future, areas with high suitability will tend to contract, but restricted to the regions of the first and second plateau of Paraná and the north of Santa Catarina. In this sense, these areas are indicated for commercial planting and in situ and ex situ conservation of the species.
Highlights
The Atlantic Forest Biome contains an impressive richness of species and is considered a hotspot for the conservation of biodiversity, to conserve and maintain natural resources and typical communities
The results obtained were like those observed for several other plant species from the Atlantic Forest, such as Vriesea incurvata (AGUIAR-MELO et al, 2019), Myrsine spp. (SÁNCHEZ-TAPIA et al, 2018) and Eremanthus erythropappus (CARVALHO et al, 2019)
The species currently has strong presence in regions under forest management, such as the Faxinal and Caívas systems, which are two community production systems (Table 3). These places, located in the center-south regions of Paraná and north of Santa Catarina, have an average temperature in the warmest month below 18 °C, with frequent severe frosts, without a defined dry season (IBGE, 2012), indicating that the species is well suited to low temperatures
Summary
The Atlantic Forest Biome contains an impressive richness of species and is considered a hotspot for the conservation of biodiversity, to conserve and maintain natural resources and typical communities. The mixed ombrophilous forest (MOF) is a phytophysiognomy of the Atlantic Forest, whose main characteristic is the presence of Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol.) Kuntze. MOF occurs mainly in the states of Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, with scattered patches in high altitude regions of São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Rio de Janeiro (IBGE, 2012). It is estimated that the area covered with the MOF has been reduced to only 12.3% of its original coverage (RIBEIRO et al, 2009). One of the native and endemic species of MOF is Curitiba prismatica
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