EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GROUNDWATER AND SALTS STORAGE IN EL SHEIKH ZUWAID-RAFAH, NORTH SINAI, EGYPT

Abstract

Identifying and quantifying future climate impacts on water resources has major economic and societal implications, rendering such studies extremely important for water planners. In this research, we integrate the outputs of the general global models GDFL-ESM2M (the suitable one of the three studied models; CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M and EC-EARTH) downscaled by regional climate model (RCA4) under representative concentration pathways RCPs scenarios 8.5, into two hydrological models to provide approximations of climate change impacts on water quantity and quality in El Sheikh Zuwaid-Rafah quaternary aquifer system which is the main source of water in the area. The projected changes of the rising scenario between the periods 1980-2005 and 2050-2075 from the three studied GCMs predicted an increase in the mean of July temperature between 4.2 - 4.8 K (kelvin degree), whereas January temperature was estimated to increase between 1.8 - 5.4 K (kelvin degree). The cumulative annual precipitation was estimated to decrease by a range varied between 30% to 51%. A Simple Bias correction (SBC) technique was implemented to correct the simulated monthly precipitation series of RCA4 (GDFL-ESM2M) over Sinai Peninsula. A three dimensional finite difference flow model (Processing MODFLOW -PM5), and the implemented solute transport model (MT3D) were used to predict the groundwater and the total dissolved solids storage. Results from running the raising scenario RCP 8.5 estimated that by the hydrological year 2074 groundwater recharge would be decreased by 2.73 M.m3, leading with the yearly exploitation to decrease groundwater storage to 11.83 M.m3 and decrease in dissolve salt storage 33.1 M. Kg.