Educational mismatch and economic adjustment: How did the Mexican job market respond to the pandemic?

Abstract

Due to the arrival of COVID-19 in Mexico, a majority of the population was affected in terms of their labor participation. This article aims to measure the levels of educational mismatch—overeducation and undereducation—in Mexico before and after the closure of activities decreed during the pandemic. The research examines changes in educational adjustment from the first quarter of 2020 to the third quarter of the same year and the first quarter of the following year, and it investigates whether there were modifications in sociodemographic profiles, changes in the conditions of those experiencing educational mismatch, and if these dynamics were a result of the crisis. The analysis uses the National Occupation and Employment Survey and employs multinomial models to assess the probability of being in some form of educational mismatch, with a grouped base for five survey editions to establish changes over time. The results show an increase of approximately 0.5% in overeducation in the total occupied population, considering sociodemographic and labor insertion characteristics. Similarly, there are differences between informal and formal employment in terms of how these changes occur, with the former showing increases first, followed by the latter.