Abstract

Of the 15 republics that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, six have predominantly Muslim populations. These nations are Azerbaijan, in the southern Caucasus, and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan in Central Asia, with a combined population of approximately 65 million people. As Soviet power declined and then finally collapsed, these six newly independent nations found themselves confronted with a world of competing philosophies ranging from the liberal secularism of Russia and Turkey to various moderate and reformist religious movements to varieties of fundamentalism and Islamist political movements emanating from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. During the transition period since 1991, the region has been afflicted by acute problems, including endemic state crisis, crime and narcotics, ethnic tensions, corruption, and competition over energy resources. Some analysts have argued that these problems were exacerbated if not caused by the failings of the regimes themselves, which have been too often unable or unwilling to address the various “fault lines” of persistent or potential violent conflict (Rashid 2002; Oliker and Szyana 2003; UNDP 2006). In Kyrgyzstan, the political situation has become more volatile and polarized as the government struggles to assert control after the March 2005 uprising that ousted President Askar Akayev. A confrontation between Uzbek security forces and antigovernment protesters in the town of Andijon in May 2005 resulted in many deaths and raises the possibility of further conflict in the densely populated Fergana Valley, which is divided between repressive Uzbekistan, impoverished Kyrgyzstan, and fragile Tajikistan (International Crisis Group 2005b). In the early 1990s, the general consensus among Western, Russian, and many local analysts was that the region would be politically stable and that extremist movements would gain little traction in Azerbaijan and Central

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