Education and Fertility: A Panel Data Analysis for Middle Eastern Countries

Abstract

In this research, the relationship between fertility, education (by genders and levels), women's participation rate in labor market, urbanization, infant mortality and relative cohort size is investigated in the 14 Middle Eastern countries for the period of 1980 and 1998. Pooled cross-sectional time series GLS model is applied. Results indicate that education of females in secondary and primary levels, female labor participation and urbanization are negatively associated and significant with fertility and tertiary education is negatively correlated but not significant. On the other hand, male education in primary and secondary education and infant mortality are positively associated with fertility. Two conclusions can be drawn. The first is that even though a region where traditional values are overwhelming in the society, enhancing female status may change fertility decisions. The second is that better health care may not be sufficient to lower fertility but a broad range of family planning should backup health care to accomplish low fertility rate. In this research, it is also considered the relative income theory (cohort size, Easterlin Hypothesis). An evidence to support the relative income hypothesis can not be found for the Middle Eastern region. This may reflect that these countries are still in the transition stage in terms of demographical dynamics or younger generation gives higher priority to having children so that the desired number of children overcomes the fierceness of the competitive labor market.