Abstract
ASEAN-3 countries displayed a high fertility rate and infant mortality rate in the beginning of the formation of ASEAN in 1967, but towards the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century, there is a reversal of this pattern. Literature review on the determinants of female fertility reveals the importance of infant mortality, income, female secondary education, female employment and age dependency as key determinants of female fertility. This study, therefore, attempts to identify the determinants of female fertility for the ASEAN-3 countries, namely Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines. Firstly, using the Johansen cointegration method, we identified the presence of a long-run relationship between female fertility rate, infant mortality, income, female secondary education, female employment and age dependency ratio for all three countries. Secondly, we identified three major determinants of female fertility for Indonesia as female education, age dependency ratio and infant mortality which is in line with the theory. For Thailand, two main determinants of female fertility include female education and income. For the Philippines, two important variables that determine female fertility are female employment and infant mortality. Finally, we found a deviation of fertility rate from the short-run to the long-run equilibrium for those three countries, with the highest and lowest speed of adjustment recorded for the Philippines and Indonesia, respectively. Keywords: female fertility, secondary education, female employment, age dependency ratio, cointegration
Highlights
Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) comprises ten countries namely Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam
We found that there exists a long-run relationship between female fertility rates (LNFR) and its determinants namely female secondary education enrollment rate (LNER), income (LNGDP), female employment (LNSE), age dependency ratio (LNADR) and infant mortality rate (LNIM) for all three countries
Past researches on the relationship between female fertility with infant mortality, income, education, employment and age dependency ratio resulted in mixed outcomes
Summary
Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) comprises ten countries namely Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Data from World Development Indicators (WDI) indicate that Singapore has the lowest fertility rate followed by Thailand and Malaysia. The Philippines’ female fertility rate remains high in comparison to other Southeast Asian countries. Gubhaju (2007) stated that there are five levels of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) namely high (TFR ≥ 5), transitional (TFR 3.0 to 4.9), near -replacement (TFR 2.2 to 2.9), low (TFR 1.6 to 2.1) and critically low (TFR≤1.5). As of 2005, the fertility level of the Philippines is transitional level, followed by Indonesia in near-replacement level, while Thailand is encountering a low level of female fertility and Singapore at the critically low level
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