Abstract
Abstract The dynamic process of ground contamination after a major nuclear accident is modelled, and the system is then extended to include the transient equations describing the three broad countermeasures: food bans, remediation and population movement (relocation and repopulation). Countermeasures are assumed to be applicable once the deposition period has ended and surface contamination measurements have stabilised. A value function is constructed to account for the major economic factors, including allowance for the detrimental effect on human health of radiation exposure. The principle of optimality is then applied by requiring the value function to satisfy the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman partial differential equation, yielding an economically optimal combination of the countermeasures at any given moment of time within the recovery period. A classification into Broad Strategies is made in order to explore the similarities in structure of optimal strategies for wide ranges of economic parameter values. Population relocation forms no part of any optimal strategy in the Base Case (or Case I) as parameters are varied over a wide range. Strategies incorporating relocation have a low probability of being optimal even in the low-probability sensitivity studies of Case II, where relocation is imposed immediately the accident happens, and Case III, where the Base Case assumption is reversed of lower economic productivity awaiting those moving from the original to the new area. It is concluded that relocation is almost certain to be a less than optimal response after a great many large-scale nuclear accidents.
Highlights
Probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) have been developed extensively over the last 40 years to estimate the risks associated with a nuclear facility
This paper develops a tool for managing the aftermath of a major nuclear accident that is presumed to have occurred by dividing the potential countermeasures available to the authorities into just 3 broad categories: food bans, remediation and population movement, with the last covering both relocation and repopulation
Case III, where economic productivity will be increased by a move to the new location
Summary
Probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) have been developed extensively over the last 40 years to estimate the risks associated with a nuclear facility. The model is developed for a single location, which might be a town, a village or a specified area, and it is assumed that no countermeasure will be applied until the end of the deposition period. At this point it is assumed that the decision maker will have measurements of the level of surface contamination (Bq m−2) available, and will be in a position to make well-informed decisions.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
