Abstract
Uncertainty surrounding the future cost of energy can contribute significantly to the economic risk associated with large building complexes. A methodology for measuring this risk and incorporating it into the design decision-making process is presented. It involves a first and second moment or mean and variance description of life cycle cost. This information may be aggregated into a single number using expected utility theory for the purpose of ranking design alternatives. A case study which deals with various energy conservation strategies for a 30-storey office complex is presented to demonstrate the significance of economic risk for large projects and the dependence of design alternative rankings on the decision criteria selected.
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