Economic performance of water storage capacity expansion for food security

Abstract

Continued climate variability, population growth, and rising food prices present ongoing challenges for achieving food and water security in poor countries that lack adequate water infrastructure. Undeveloped storage infrastructure presents a special challenge in northern Afghanistan, where food security is undermined by highly variable water supplies, inefficient water allocation rules, and a damaged irrigation system due three decades of war and conflict. Little peer-reviewed research to date has analyzed the economic benefits of water storage capacity expansions as a mechanism to sustain food security over long periods of variable climate and growing food demands needed to feed growing populations. This paper develops and applies an integrated water resources management framework that analyzes impacts of storage capacity expansions for sustaining farm income and food security in the face of highly fluctuating water supplies. Findings illustrate that in Afghanistan’s Balkh Basin, total farm income and food security from crop irrigation increase, but at a declining rate as water storage capacity increases from zero to an amount equal to six times the basin’s long term water supply. Total farm income increases by 21%, 41%, and 42% for small, medium, and large reservoir capacity, respectively, compared to the existing irrigation system unassisted by reservoir storage capacity. Results provide a framework to target water infrastructure investments that improve food security for river basins in the world’s dry regions with low existing storage capacity that face ongoing climate variability and increased demands for food security for growing populations.