Economic Modeling of Water Need Determination in Lebanon: Implication for Lebanon’s Agriculture

Abstract

The Arabian orient from the end of World War II on has been boiling with conflicts, the underlying reason ever since, natural resources. The vassal states created by the French and the British after their victory in the Great War had their borders drawn on the premise of distributing this wealth. However; priorities in the region are starting to shift. With the rising prices, diminishing reserves of oil and the discovery of larger deposits in other regions of the world, the dependence on solar and renewable energy sources is gaining an equivalent strategic importance, water is becoming a major player in the region’s politics, and it is the new strategic asset. Whether in energy production or agriculture, water, is a more suitable substitute to produce electricity at lower costs, a perfect substitute to oil and gas, and safer than nuclear energy. This paper aims at revealing the wasted wealth of water that Lebanon has thirsty neighbors look upon to have. Lebanon is a small piece of land, which God almighty has blessed with annual rain that averages between 8 to 10 billion m³, a figure that can easily classify as a strategic asset. The regions` limited fresh water resources will determine the future political alliances and will possess the key to trigger wars. This paper also demonstrates how the increase in agricultural production would lead to an increase in water needed for irrigation that varies according to the nature of the crops considered by this study i.e., Wheat, Veggies, Citrus, and Apples. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method was utilized to determine the needed water per crop per ton. A regression model with four independent variables was used to cover Wheat, Veggies, Citrus, and Apples, along with one dependent variable, the level of water needed. The findings indicated that for every ton of wheat produced 14 MCM of water is needed, and for every ton of veggies produced 0.002 MCM of water is needed, moreover, for every ton of citrus produced 0.006 MCM of water is needed, and finally, for every ton of apple produced 0.035 MCM of water is needed.