Economic measurement of the impact of some macroeconomic variables on the foreign trade of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for the period (1990-2019)

Abstract

Foreign trade is one of the basic components of economic relations between the countries of the world, as it brings them together in one economic and international system, as it leads to the transfer of many economies of the countries of the world from one case to another. The global economy has worked to change it, and trade is affected by several internal and external factors, including macroeconomic variables. The research aims to: Identify some macro variables and their relationship to Saudi Arabia’s foreign trade for the long and short term using modern analytical and standard methods and their estimation for the period (1990-2019). The research reached its measurement aspect after studying the static time series and using the method of the co-integration methodology through the ARDL model. The research proved the existence of a short-term relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable, and the results of the long-term relationship between foreign trade and macroeconomic variables in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia showed that the signal is positive between public spending and foreign trade, but it is not significant at the level of morale (5%). And that the relationship is direct between the gross domestic product and foreign trade, and that an increase in the gross domestic product by (1%). Leads to an increase in foreign trade by (1.22%). As well as the existence of a direct relationship between foreign direct investment and foreign trade, and it was found that the increase in foreign direct investment by (1%). Leads to an increase in foreign trade by (0.047%). The research recommended paying attention to foreign trade and its tools that are needed by development, especially in oil-producing countries, as Saudi Arabia is an oil country, by taking advantage of oil revenues in the formation of its export structure. And focusing on increasing interest in studies who adopted the relationship between macroeconomic variables and foreign trade in order to know the impact of these variables and their positive and negative effects on trade. Since there is a long-term relationship between the foreign trade variable and the macro variables under discussion, it is necessary to focus on public spending and emphasize investment spending by taking advantage of the gross domestic product it has a direct relationship with foreign trade.