Economic implications of a virus prevention program in deciduous tree fruits in the US

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Viral diseases in fruit trees present a potential danger that could injure the fruit industry, the planting stock industry (nurseries), and consumers in the United States and abroad. Currently, the US has a virus protection program (VPP) that serves to minimize the spread of viral diseases. This paper reports research estimating the economic consequences of the loss of the program on nurseries, growers and consumers. The potential economic losses are a measure of the value of the existing program. The paper focuses on apples, sweet cherries, and Clingstone peaches. The effects of a loss of a VPP on nurseries would include direct and indirect losses from viral diseases in the form of lower quantity and quality of planting stocks. Fruit growers would be affected by reduced plant growth and fruit yield. Consumers would be affected by higher prices and reduced quantity of fruit. We measured benefits of the virus prevention program as changes in consumer and producer surpluses. Empirical estimates were made using the method of avoided losses. Benefit estimates to three economic sectors—nurseries (avoided change in producer surplus), producers (avoided change in consumer and producer surpluses), and consumers (avoided change in consumer surplus)—were calculated. Total benefits for all three sectors were approximately $227.4 million a year, or more than 420 times the cost of the program. Our analysis utilizes a method that might be used to evaluate other programs that prevent the introduction of plant diseases.