Abstract
Abstract This paper has a twofold objective: First, to estimate the changes in landings value by 2030 for two Mexican coastal fisheries, specifically shrimp and sardine fisheries, as a consequence of climate change; and second, to discuss the implications of such impacts for food security. A dynamic panel model was used for the Mexican fisheries sector, with data from 1990 through 2009. The results suggest that shrimp production will be negatively affected, while in contrast, the sardine fishery is expected to benefit from the increase in temperature. Most losses/gains would be observed in the NW Mexican Pacific, where the fishing sector has an important role in the local economy, representing a risk to food security in both direct and indirect ways.
Highlights
The fisheries sector is important to national economies in the developing world; for example, several countries from both Asia and Latin America are among the major fishing nations in the world (FAO, 2012)
Fisheries production would have to increase in about 50% over the coming decades in order to cope with nutritional demand worldwide (Rice and Garcia 2011); the trend seems to go the wrong way: fisheries over-capacity has to be curtailed because it already threatens food security in a number of regions (Smith et al 2010; Srinivasan et al 2010)
The FINANCING and TEMPERATURE variables are treated as exogenous, and the rest of the explanatory variables and their lags, are included as instruments in the System GMM estimates for the output of shrimp and sardine
Summary
The fisheries sector is important to national economies in the developing world; for example, several countries from both Asia and Latin America are among the major fishing nations in the world (FAO, 2012). Its importance is frequently underestimated (Allison et al 2009), it has a relevant role for local livelihoods and regional development (Daw et al 2009). About 3 billion people take almost 20% of their protein intake from fish products and 4.3 billion with about 15% of their protein intake (FAO 2012:5). Fisheries production would have to increase in about 50% over the coming decades in order to cope with nutritional demand worldwide (Rice and Garcia 2011); the trend seems to go the wrong way: fisheries over-capacity has to be curtailed because it already threatens food security in a number of regions (Smith et al 2010; Srinivasan et al 2010). The potential effects of climate change (CC) on fisheries imply consequences on food security (FAO 2007; Daw et al 2009; Garcia and Rosenberg 2010)
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