Abstract
The current paper investigates the long-term global impacts on crop productivity under different climate scenarios using the AgMIP approach (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project). The paper provides horizontal model intercomparison from 11 economic models as well as a more detailed analysis of the simulated effects from the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model to systematically compare its performance with other AgMIP models and specifically for the Chinese agriculture. CAPRI is a comparative static partial equilibrium model extensively used for medium and long-term economic and environmental policy impact applications. The results indicate that, at the global level, the climate change will cause an agricultural productivity decrease (between −2% and −15% by 2050), a food price increase (between 1.3% and 56%) and an expansion of cultivated area (between 1% and 4%) by 2050. The results for China indicate that the climate change effects tend to be smaller than the global impacts. The CAPRI-simulated effects are, in general, close to the median across all AgMIP models. Model intercomparison analyses reveal consistency in terms of direction of change to climate change but relatively strong heterogeneity in the magnitude of the effects between models.
Highlights
Climate change can cause a wide range of effects in agriculture
We focus on the application of the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model by systematically comparing its performance with 10 other economic models
Scenario results are presented in order to provide insight on the potential effects of climate changes on the agricultural sector (AGR)
Summary
Climate change can cause a wide range of effects in agriculture. A direct impact of climate change on agriculture is reflected through altering crop growth development and yields due to changes in rainfall and temperature patterns. There is a relatively rich literature available that attempts to quantify the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture globally or in a specific region.[2,3,4] There can be distinguished four types of approaches employed in the literature:[5] (1) crop simulation models,[3,6,7,8] (2) statistical cross-sectional or intertemporal analysis,[2,9] (3) agro-economic simulation and partial equilibrium (PE) models,[10,11] and (4) computable general equilibrium models (CGE).[12] These studies have reported substantial differences in outcomes, such as production, trade, welfare, and prices induced by differences in model parameterization and model specification. Studies have concluded that the impact of climate change on crop yields would highly depend upon the geographical location of the crop production with crops in some regions benefiting[10,13,14] while crops in other regions showing an adverse effect under new climatic conditions.[6,15,16,17,18] An
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