Improved modelling framework for assessing the interactions between the energy, agriculture, forestry and land use change sectors: Integrating the CAPRI, LUISA-BEES, CBM and POTEnCIA models

Abstract

This report is an attempt to develop a modelling framework integrating different sectoral stand-alone models used at the JRC for policy impact assessment in the fields of agriculture, forestry, land use change and energy. The proposed quantitative framework should improve the capability of assessing greenhouse gas emissions and removals resulting from complex interactions between the agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sectors, and facilitate the analysis of policy scenarios relevant for a sustainable and carbon-neutral European economy. Four models are considered, for which a revised model specification and harmonization of relevant databases and model parameters is needed. The Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) Modelling System is a widely used large-scale multi-commodity agricultural economic model. The Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment modelling platform for BioEconomy and Ecosystem Services (LUISA-BEES) is primarily used for the ex-ante evaluation of European policies that have a direct or indirect territorial impact on the agricultural and forestry sectors. The Carbon Budget Model (CBM) is a stand-alone forestry model that simulates forest carbon dynamics. The Policy Oriented Tool for Energy and Climate Change Impact Assessment (POTEnCIA) model depicts a detailed EU energy system combining both techno-economic modules. As a 'proof of integration', this report describes the improvement of the CAPRI land use function and harmonization of related database such as to be linked to the output from the LUISA-BEES model. Moreover, forestry area projections and related carbon removals in CAPRI are improved by using direct information from the CBM model. Last but not least, the POTEnCIA model is improved by parameterizing a first generation biofuel supply curve based on CAPRI simulations. In order to test the proposed modelling framework, the report proposes a set of exploratory policy scenarios based on each model’s capabilities: reform of the Common Agricultural Policy, expansion of biofuel mandates and carbon pricing (CAPRI); implementation of spatially explicit sustainability criteria for the plantation of energy crops and afforestation (LUISA-BEES), different levels of forest harvesting (CBM) and strong decarbonisation policies (POTEnCIA).