Economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions—An empirical study based on the Yangtze River economic belt of China

Abstract

The Yangtze River Economic Belt plays a crucial role in the economic development of China from the perspective of economic growth, as well as from the perspective of the goal of the emission peak and carbon neutrality. In this study, the dynamic and causal relationships among economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions of the provinces and municipalities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt were analyzed using the panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model. The results revealed that the economic growth and the changes in CO2 emissions in the current period are significantly influenced by the economic growth and CO2 emissions in the preceding period, while the energy consumptionin the current period is influenced by the economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the preceding period. The results of the Granger causality test based on panel data suggested that among the three sets of causalities involving economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions, only economic growth and CO2 emissions have one-way causality, while the other two sets of causalities are two-way. Further, the results of the impulse response function and variance decomposition showed significantly positive effects and a certain degree of path dependence among economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions.