Abstract
Since 2003, the growth rate of the GDP has been higher in Argentina than in Brazil. Argentina re-established sustained industrialisation, while in Brazil the trend is towards deindustrialisation. Investment rates grew, but not enough, and pressures on production capacity remain high. Income distribution is less unequal. Poverty has decreased, its depth has strongly declined, and inequalities among the poor have also declined. Employment is growing – including in the industrial sector; informal jobs, whether salaried or not, are loosing ground; while the balance of trade shows a strong surplus and the dept ratio is not overly high. Real inflation is high, far higher than announced by the government, and it curtails any rise in buying power, particularly among the poorest. Distributional conflicts between farmers and government, between wage earners and managers, illustrate both governance problems and questions of societal options. The recent rise in effective exchange rates, the rise in the share of raw materials in exports, the fact that these are needed for subsidies paid mainly to energy consuming sectors, the shortage of subsidies to research intensive industries could tomorrow turn what is currently a virtuous circle into a vicious circle.
Published Version
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