Economic Fluctuations, Technological Innovations and the Arms Race in a Historical Perspective

Abstract

Väyrynen, R. Economic Fluctuations, Technological Innovations and the Arms Race in a Historical Perspective. Cooperation and Conflict, XVIII, 1983, 135-159. The development of international relations may be explained cyclically by combining the long cycles of economic development and technological innovations with the economic and technological rise of various major powers. It is pointed out that the 'bunches' of technological innovations emerging in the context of national industrial ization strategies define the nature of military programmes. The development trajec tories of military technology are thus dependent on macroeconomic and macropolitical changes over long historical periods in major powers and in their international pos itions. The roots of new military technologies and major wars appear to be in the periods of economic stagnation. During the upswing phase of the long economic cycle new resources are generated for the expansion of military programmes which tends to increase the probability of warfare. During the upswing the costs of such programmes are easier to carry than during the downturn when they also may be more controversial. Furthermore, their economic impact differs between countries. In 'mature' industrial powers, such as the United States and Great Britain from the 1960s, military pro grammes become a real burden, while in upward-mobile semiperipheral nations, such as Germany and Japan in the late 19th century, state support to military industries may encourage economic and technological development in general. On the other hand the United States in the second half of the 19th century and Japan after WW II are examples in which modest military programmes have allowed a full utilization of technological innovations made during the preceding economic slowdown for civilian purposes.