Research on the Relationship between Business Cycle and Industrial Fluctuations in Northeast China Based on Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise

Yinan Zhou,Guofeng Gu,Qiushuang Ren

doi:10.1155/2021/8832201

Abstract

The Chinese economy has developed rapidly since the reform and opening up, but economic growth in Northeast China has declined dramatically after the 21st century. In this context, exploring the characteristics of economic and industrial fluctuations in the northeast of China and their relationship is beneficial to alleviating economic fluctuations and promoting stable economic development from the perspective of industrial development. The relationship between economic and industrial fluctuations in the three provinces of Northeast China was reexamined from the angle of fluctuation components with the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) algorithm. The results obtained are as follows: (1) In the three northeastern provinces of China, economic fluctuations were almost free from the influence of the primary industry, most affected by the secondary industry, and gradually influenced by the tertiary industry after the 21st century. (2) Regarding the short-term business cycle of each province, economic development was the most stable when the market and government participated in the development of the secondary industry simultaneously. (3) The midterm business cycle of Jilin Province was affected by the investment of equipment in secondary and tertiary industries, while that of Liaoning Province was affected by the investment of equipment in the secondary industry. (4) Investment in the equipment of the secondary industry and the construction of secondary and tertiary industries was the key to maintaining the stability of long-term business cycle in Heilongjiang Province, and that in the construction of secondary and tertiary industries was the key to maintaining the stability of long-term business cycles in Jilin and Liaoning Provinces.

Highlights

(2) Regarding the short-term business cycle of each province, economic development was the most stable when the market and government participated in the development of the secondary industry simultaneously. (3) e midterm business cycle of Jilin Province was affected by the investment of equipment in secondary and tertiary industries, while that of Liaoning Province was affected by the investment of equipment in the secondary industry
Economy has maintained steady and rapid growth in China since the reform and opening up but experienced severe economic downturns in the three northeastern provinces of China in the 1990s and 2010s. e growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the three northeastern provinces of China is much less than the national average, and obvious problems exist in various indicators of economic operation
Researchers always deal with the data in a linear system when analyzing the economic sequence in an economic system in order to facilitate quantification and often transform nonstationary time series into stationary ones before adopting existing time series methods. e difficulty of the analysis process is reduced, but the effectiveness of analysis depends too much on the stationarity and linear assumption of data, which often leads to the loss of some information and changes the economic meaning of data

Summary

Introduction

Economy has maintained steady and rapid growth in China since the reform and opening up but experienced severe economic downturns in the three northeastern provinces of China in the 1990s and 2010s. e growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the three northeastern provinces of China is much less than the national average, and obvious problems exist in various indicators of economic operation. Ma conducted a theoretical and empirical study on the relationship between economic fluctuations and industrial structure changes and found that a variety of industries are sensitive to business cycles to varying degrees, with the secondary industry showing the highest sensitivity [6,7,8,9]. Some researchers analyzed the relationship between industrial structure changes and economic fluctuations in China and believed that industrial structure changes have a “smoothing effect” on macroeconomic fluctuations [20,21,22,23].

Materials and Methods

Empirical Analysis

Findings

Discussion