Abstract

The burden of pneumococcal disease varies regionally in China, particularly affecting children in Qinghai and Hainan. Nevertheless, absence of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) in the National Immunization Program (NIP) or local programs presents limited coverage. This study evaluated the health and economic impact of including PCV in immunization programs in Qinghai and Hainan. A decision tree Markov model was constructed to simulate health outcomes and lifetime costs among children under different 13-valent PCV (PCV13) vaccination strategies compared to current practices, from societal and healthcare perspectives. Data on epidemiology, vaccine efficacy, cost, and utility were obtained from literature or open databases. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore parameter uncertainty. Including three-dose PCV13 in provincial programs at NIP coverage (98.91%) could avert 7100 episodes and 118 deaths in Qinghai, and 6200 episodes and 66 deaths in Hainan. It was cost-effective at the $68.2/dose in private market and cost-saving at the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) recommended $25/dose for both provinces. Increasing coverage to 50% or 75% was also cost-effective. Sensitivity analyses confirmed results robustness despite parameter uncertainty. Prioritizing PCV13 in immunization programs in Qinghai and Hainan could effectively reduce disease burden, improve population health, and promote health equity.

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