Economic Effects On State Governors

Abstract

A large body of research on the impact of economic conditions on elections has been amassed. Past research emphasized congressional and presidential elections. The present research extended the question of economic effects to the state level. Are governors held responsible for the economic conditions of their states? The existing studies at the state level all used aggregate data and concluded that states' economies do not affect the fortunes of the governors. The studies inferred that the national economy, not the state economy, affects governors. The present research was a direct test of the aggregate studies using micro-level data from statewide surveys. Strong state economic effects on gubernatorial approval were found in a multivariate model. Furthermore, evaluations of the national economy were almost insignificant in predicting gubernatorial approval.