Economic effects of a controlled mangrove-to-pond coverage ratio policy on mangrove conservation and shrimp farming: A case study in vietnam using instrumental regression analysis

Abstract

The mangrove-shrimp farming model in Vietnam's Mekong Delta region was devised to foster mangrove conservation while supporting the livelihoods of small-scale shrimp farmers by allocating them land for both mangrove protection and shrimp farming. However, this model faces challenges as farmers often clear mangrove areas to expand shrimp ponds, seeking greater profits. Based on data collected from structured interviews with shrimp farming households, an Instrumental Variable (IV) regression method is used in this study to examine the economic viability of mangrove-shrimp farming in the Tam Giang Protection Forest of Ca Mau province and predict the impacts of recommended fixed mangrove-to-pond coverage ratios (MPR) on shrimp yield and household income in two different scenarios. Findings reveal that almost half of the surveyed farmers do not meet the recommended MPR, prioritizing pond expansion over mangrove protection, suggesting prevalent noncompliance and ineffective regulatory enforcement. Additionally, the research highlighted the critical role of mangrove-shrimp farming in the livelihoods of these communities, with findings indicating that even minimal increases in pond area can enhance productivity. Conversely, stricter pond coverage regulations could potentially worsen the economic situation for numerous households.