Economic Crisis, Income Gaps, Uncertainty, and Inter-regional Migration Responses: Kazakhstan 2000–2014

Abstract

There is ample empirical evidence that internal migration occurs in response to wage differentials; recently, evidence has emerged that international migration is deterred by rising destination uncertainty. However, to our knowledge, there has been no analysis of how internal migration responds to differing incentives during good times and bad. This paper provides insight into this issue using detailed regional economic and migration data for Kazakhstan during boom (2000–2007) and crisis (2008–2014) periods. While conventional forces are affirmed, we find that the crisis deters migration and weakens the effect of wage differentials – while also reducing the deterrent effect of relative uncertainty.