Economic Consequences of Changes in Russia’s Age Distribution During Demographic Waves

Abstract

The current changes in ratio of Russia’s main socioeconomic groups (working-age, youth, and elderly) are adversely impacting the country’s economic development. The purpose of this article is to reflect these changes during a demographic wave. To that end, we use official statistics and predicted population changes up to the year 2050. Our analysis shows that the number and share of the working-age population will decline, the elderly population will grow, and the youth population can either decrease or increase. This will lead to a decline in the number of people employed and to a significant increase in employment of the elderly, to a substantial demographic burden, and to a decrease both in standard of living and in volume of the domestic market.