Abstract
During past decades, effects of accessibility to growth have been considered extensively. In previous studies, however, matter of scale has been largely ignored. In this study, relevance of travel accessibility and essential socio-economic variables for explaining population change analysed with a multi-scalar study setting by the case of Finland. The analytical framework of the study relies on applied geographical information systems (GIS). Relationships between population change and explanatory variables were established with non-linear multiple regression, generalised additive models (GAMs). The data consist of population and socio-economic grid cell databases based on authentic records, transport network models, including complete digital road network database. Models were established at six resolutions between 2 km × 2 km and 24 km × 24 km. The main result is that the performance of the models, explaining and predicting population change, strongly relies on potential accessibility particularly at accurate resolutions. An important finding is also that it is possible to establish explain and predict population change tolerably at accurate resolutions and well at coarse resolutions, as the performance of models increases with scale.
Highlights
The agglomeration of society can be generally explained by the economies of scale, positive feedback in circular causation, and increasing returns [1]
Fujita and Thisse [9] state even that there is a fundamental trade-off between scale economies and transportation costs in the geographical organisation of markets, and low transport costs tend to favour the formation of geographical clusters or to deter the creation of new ones
Multivariate generalised additive models (GAMs) produced significantly stable relationships between explanatory variables and population change in relation to resolution, which is apparent in the similarities of response curves at the most accurate 2 km × 2 km and the most coarse 24 km × 24 km resolutions used in the analyses (Figure 4 and Figure 5)
Summary
The agglomeration of society can be generally explained by the economies of scale, positive feedback in circular causation, and increasing returns [1]. The importance of accessibility to the economic development and. (2014) Role of Accessibility and SocioEconomic Variables in Modelling Population Change at Varying Scale. The role of accessibility and its effects on the development of various types of areas have been considered in a great number of studies using different types of indicators, and extensive reviews have been produced on the subject [4]-[6]. According to Krugman [7], the emergence of a core-periphery pattern depends on transportation costs, economies of scale, and the share of manufacturing in national income. The effect of road investments do not necessarily affect accessibility to a remarkable extent due to increasing travel volumes, and the welfare gains may prove to be fairly modest in terms of travel time and costs [11]
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