Economic and social consequences of the ban on the employment of foreign workers (example of the Central Federal District)

Abstract

The article for the first time examines the experience of regulating international migration by imposing bans on attracting foreign citizens who work on the basis of patents in certain types of economic activity. The study was conducted on the basis of a comparison of the socio-economic indicators of the regions of the Central Federal District that use this tool (Tver and Voronezh regions), never used it (Moscow) and recently joined the practice (Kaluga region). The statistic for 2014-2022, reflecting the dynamics of external migration flows, the state of internal labor resources and individual sectors of the economy, as well as the level of crime among migrants, is analyzed. Conclusions about the prohibitive practice as a practice, which has little effect on the studied indices of protectionist regions and weakly distinguishes them from the background of other regions, are drawn. The number of issued patents in the Tver region is declining with a slight decrease in international labor migration in general, which indicates a change in the proportion of the foreign labor force in favor of a category, that does not require a patent. The dynamics of the gross regional product indicators for the groups of economic activities forbidden for the employment of foreign citizens coincides with the general upward trend due to an increase in labor productivity in all the subjects under consideration. Crime among foreign citizens in the Tver region before the pandemic was declining with an increase in the number of crimes committed against foreigners, which corresponded to the dynamics in Moscow and in the district as a whole. It seems promising to confirm or refute the obtained conclusions based on the results of studying the indices of all protectionist regions of the Russian Federation, which will improve the methods of forecasting and managing migration processes. It is also noted the need to expand the range of available data by forming a single digital database that makes it possible to trace the process of attracting foreign citizens at control points: medical (passing a medical examination), educational (passing an exam in the Russian language, Russian history and the basics of Russian legislation), financial (payment indicators monthly imputed patent tax).